Primary season for the 2024 presidential election is underway, as Iowa and New Hampshire held the first contests in the nation on Jan. 15 and Jan. 23, respectively.
The results of the contests so far have reinforced incumbent president Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump’s standing as the likely nominees for their respective parties in the general election. This would result in a rematch of the 2020 presidential race, where Biden defeated then-incumbent Trump 306-232 in the electoral college.
Currently, the Republican field is down to two candidates: Trump and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. Florida governor Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign on Jan. 21, two days before the News Hampshire primary, after a poor performance in Iowa.
In the Iowa caucuses, Trump won the contest with 51% of the vote and carried all but one of the state’s 99 counties. DeSantis finished in a distant-second place with 21.2% of the vote, while Haley came in third place with 19.1%.
Exit polling conducted by CNN showed that Trump received strong support from older, Christian, non-college educated and rural voters. Haley’s strongest support came from Republicans who identify as “moderate,” as she won 63% of these voters.
Trump picked up another victory in New Hampshire this past Tuesday, winning 54.3% of the vote to Haley’s 43.2%, a margin of 11.1%. Haley’s support largely came from registered independent voters, as the state’s open primary system allows any registered voter to vote in any primary of their choosing. According to CNN exit polling, registered independents, who made up 46% of the vote, Haley won 64% of them compared to 35% for Trump, a 29% margin. But registered Republicans, who accounted for 50% of the vote, broke for Trump 74% to Haley’s 24%, a staggering 50% margin.
As a result of these contests, Trump collected 32 delegates, while Haley collected 17. Delegates are awarded on a state-by-state basis based on what proportion of the vote a candidate wins. This year, 1,215 delegates are needed to win the Republican nomination.
Meanwhile on the Democratic side, Biden cruised to victory in the New Hampshire Democratic primary with 63.9% of the vote. Biden did not appear on the ballot in the state due to the primary not being officially sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee, as their approved plan for the 2024 primaries listed South Carolina as the first official primary. No delegates will be awarded from this race.
Representative Dean Phillips (D-MN) finished in second place with 19.6% of the vote. Phillips, who didn’t enter the race until October 2023, is running as a younger alternative to Biden, but is only polling at 3.5% among national polls. Marianne Williamson, a former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate who is running for the nomination again this year, received a mere 4% of the vote in the state.
The next Democratic primary will be South Carolina on Feb. 3, while the next Republican primary is Nevada on Feb. 6.